Portfolio Update 03/31 (New Position and What I'm Buying and What I'm Selling)

Where i'm sitting today and how i'm thinking about the next year

Its never a dull moment when you’re investing with Trump in the oval office, but my portfolio has almost nothing to do with politics (geo or otherwise). So today I just want to touch base about where things are, what i’m thinking, and what i’m doing.

The last 6 months have been bloody in the markets as investors react to any and all headlines that seem relevant. AI is a somehow a monster, a bubble, and a godsend alllll at the same time….or maybe its not. Investors seem to think every single thing about it is true all at once. Fortunately, i’ve tried my best to create a portfolio which is mostly “AI Agnostic.”

Oh right and then theres the war.

If you’re living under a rock, you probably still heard about the the U.S invasion of Iran and the closing of the strait of Hormuz. I do find it somewhat interesting how willing the media is to talk about Trump’s war, its consequential “high oil prices,” and their effect on “everyday Americans.” A correlation I don’t disagree with in the slightest, but rather i’m baffled that somehow oil prices don’t matter if they go down under Trump? As in, if oil prices rise under Trump its all over the news, but not a single whisper of “horay” is heard if they come down. I guess the blasphemy of referencing oil's importance is only acceptable if its weaponized against Trump. Its so annoying that I have to make these points. I would much prefer to simply critique the administration, and yet I feel I have to point these things out to bring us back to sanity. Yes, high oil prices are bad for the economy - particularly lower income and middle class Americans. And so therefore….

LOW OIL PRICES ARE GOOD

Anyway, thats off topic but I had to say it.

Its extremely tempting to look at headlines and REACT. In many ways, I actually think the market is actually under-reacting to this oil disruption. But the idea that I can become a competent geopolitical and war strategist overnight by reading articles and watching youtube videos is complete malarkey.

My first ever post on Substack in April of 2025 (amid the tariff selloff) began with a quote:

“A genius is the man who can do the average thing when everyone else around him is losing his mind.” —Napoleon

Now, that post - which had very few views - aged miraculously well.

I also want to point out that, if my goal was to “kill it on substack,” i’d already have 3 write-ups on the war. Instead, my goal is to beat the market over a long period of time…so from me you get an Adobe write-up. I will say, I’m working on a piece about CCP weaponization of Western media, but thats a passion project.

ANYWAY

First and foremost, lets take a look at my “performance” (I don’t like that word but whatever).

Performance (As of 03/30/2026):

YTD my portfolio has returned +1.71% compared to -6.68% for the S&P and -9.73% for the Nasdaq.

1- year return for my portfolio was 25.65% compared to 15.56% for the S&P and 21.70% for the NASDAQ

2- year return for my portfolio (annualized) was 18.26%, compared to 11.54% for the S&P and 13.86% for the NASDAQ

3-year return for my portfolio (annualized) was 23.54% compared to 18.69% for the S&P and 21.52% for the NASDAQ

4-year return for my portfolio (annualized) was 13.39% compared to 9.89% for the S&P and 10.24% for the NASDAQ

Not bad!

Just for transparency, i’m using the Schwab performance tracker, which tracks my performance as if I had simply invested every dollar I transfer into my various accounts straight into the S&P/NASDAQ the minute it hit my account. So while the “returns” of the S&P are actually lower - for example - on the 1-year chart on Yahoo/Seeking alpha (meaning in some ways i’ve done better than I denoted above), i’m choosing to show you the most accurate (and less flattering) picture. Timing matters whether one intends to time his investments or not. But I figured you wouldn’t mind since my tracking method makes me look worse rather than better.

Overview

Over the last year (and even a bit before that) i’ve been trimming my tech holdings in fairly dramatic fashion. I’ve sold all my Apple, Microsoft, TSMC, and QQQm (a U.S Tech Index) and migrated towards a myriad of other, “non tech” related holdings. I have, however, held onto (and added to) my Amazon and Netflix positions during big drawdowns (~$170/share for Amazon during the tariff selloff, and ~$75/share for Netflix during the Paramount debacle). I’ve also been trimming as much SPY as I can without instigating a taxable event.

For context, on May 16th of 2025, QQQm, SPY, Amazon, Netflix, Apple, TSMC, and Microsoft collectively made up 64% of my portfolio. Today, those same holdings make up just under 30% (I don’t own any Apple, Microsoft, or TSMC anymore). 85% of my net worth is in individual names (rather than funds), and my largest holding is now the “secret position” (partly thanks to a ~60% run up).

Later on, i’ll discuss what i’m buying, but first here is a full breakdown of my holdings along with some comnentary on each:

Portfolio Breakdown

Secret Position: 23.35%

The “secret position” has its own tab on my Substack for good reason; its almost impossible to find other commentary about this company online as it has a <$100m market cap. Its also mislabeled on many stock screeners. I’ve added to this holding during 2025 on dips, but it has also risen about 60% over the last few months. I have no intention to sell it anytime soon (or maybe ever). I’m as tight lipped as I can be about this company, simply because I don’t want to drive the price up through word of mouth alone. If i’m gonna be right, let it be for honorable reasons.

Copart: 8.92%

I’ve written two different pieces about Copart, and i’ve been buying it all the way for $38 down to $33. I have 0 intention to sell this position, and i’m happily adding more. The business is in good shape overall, they’re buying back shares, and its basically insulated from any AI-related bubble/disruption. Anyone who thinks this is a SAAS company and has sold it as a result is a complete fool. I’ll happily buy their shares.

Amazon: 8.80%

My conviction on Amazon has been…tested a bit. They’ve enjoyed very little love during this “AI wave” while also spending a lot of my money on AI - or at least thats the story. They’re also issuing shares and taking on debt. Amazon is a business with many many moving parts, and i’m a big fan of the management philosophy. I’ve been a Prime member for years now, and I have no intention of stopping. I also think the market has under-weighed their capacity to become an advertising giant. Of all U.S large cap tech firms, I have generally leaned towards Amazon as the least vulnerable to disruption. I’ll happily defend that point, and yet I do wonder if Amazon’s AI spending will truly yield a return. Its hard for me to mentally cope with the idea of 0 tech exposure, and I see Amazon almost like a “Big tech Berkshire.” I like owning it, but of all my holdings its the hardest thesis to pin down. For now, i’m holding tight.

Pool Corp: 8.35%

The lower it goes the more I buy. All the way from $300 → $200 and i’m not alone. The company itself is buying back BIG chunks while also paying a nice 2% dividend. This is just a casualty of a housing market that mathematically must rebound - even if its not in some monumental way. The moat is deep and wide, and the economics are lovely. Every new pool built in America represents decades of chlorine, filters, and repairs. At $200 this is one of my highest convictions.

Eagle Materials: 4.90%

When I arrive at the poor house, my T-shirt will read, “The Housing Market: Any Day Now.” Eagle Materials is the embodiment of that picture. To be fair, i’m not down all that much (roughly 15% or so all in all), but this was more of a bet on housing than I realized at the time. Ultimately, when you’re buying a cyclical industry on the way down, you can’t expect to time the bottom perfectly. One of my coal positions was down -40% at one point, and today its +75%. Eagle still generates healthy profits from it’s Portland Cement business, and uses those to buy back shares and make advantageous acquisitions. Still, the pain in the wallboard business is palpable. I also ought to ask myself why I haven’t sold Eagle and simply bought Pool Corp - a business with better economics and a similarly cheap price. For now I like my boring cement business, but if I had to chose a business to trim or sell, this would be the one.

AMR: 6.11% / HCC: 1.98%

I’ll put these two together since I think of them as one “coal position.” What can I say! Turns out coal is super freaking important and the left wing utopia is still a ways off. For now, reality rules planet Earth. You still need steel to build stuff, and you still need met-coal to make steel. It sounds like a victory lap, but i’m not sure I really deserve one just yet. After all, bad weather in Queensland, the war in Iran, and all sort of other events have helped keep prices afloat. Meanwhile, the Big Beautiful Bill helped bring down the cash costs for U.S coal miners as Australia’s royalty regime drove their costs up. While I didn’t predict any of that, it stands to reason that when you own some of the best met-coal mines on Earth, the operators are competent and shareholder friendly, the balance sheet is rock solid, and most people believe coal is a 4-letter word….you tend to get more good luck than bad. The one outsized risk that I struggle with would be…and hold onto your pearls here….a complete collapse of the Chinese economy. Regimes like that tend to fall slowly and then all at once, and lets face it, plenty of seaborne coal is bound for Shanghai. While an event like that would be far worse for Mongolian met-coal operations, its not that fragmented a market. Naturally, that would be bad for most companies, but its something I might remember if AMR starts to approach $300/share. After all, no one went broke taking some profits.

Visa: 6.05%

Oh no, stable coins! Come on people. This is the classic investor folly. Its extremely difficult to get people to switch up their habits when it comes to money. You have to offer them something pretty unique. “Fintech Disruption” is really more of a way to raise capital than it is an observable phenomena - at least thats what I believe. Visa (and Mastercard) both have powerful natural monopolies in the payments business. Alongside payments, Visa has the Value Added Services segment, which includes fraud detection, data and analytics, and merchant solutions (customer loyalty programs for example). There’s also Visa direct, which you can think about as the engine behind Venmo or Uber’s “Instant Pay.” It allows for real-time push payments (P2P, G2C, and B2B) to billions of card and bank accounts globally.

All of this payment data is a self-reinforcing moat. More data means their fraud prevention efforts are more effective than smaller players, and I cant imagine how that wont be more important in the age of AI.

If I had one concern about this space it would be overregulation in Europe and similarly adversarial stances from other nations. China, for example, doesn’t allow its citizens to use Visa/Mastercard, but rather they’re forced into using Ali-pay and We-chat. If you’re a government who wants more control over your people (so…basically just any government), then why would you let a foreign company slide into your economy and collect data that they may refuse to share with you? There’ a lot of anti-trust abuse in Europe (and overregulation of the financial industry) which leads me to believe it will be harder for companies like Visa and Mastercard to embed themselves as deeply into the European economy.

In regards to overregulation, I should point out that this almost always results in a bigger barrier for smaller companies. Visa can deploy its massive legal and compliance department to solve these problems and contest unfair treatment. The little guys cannot.

Ultimately, Visa is just a great business at a fair price. I usually buy it on dips when I don’t have other ideas or time to find them. I spend very little time monitoring this position, and I regard it as a ballast more than anything.

Adobe: 4.68%

Adobe is my newest position and could be considered a bet against the over-hype of AI. I don’t like shorting bubbles, so i’m happy to buy a counter-narrative instead. I have a recent write-up on Adobe so feel free to check that out for a more in depth explanation. The long and short is that the sentiment around adobe is such a far cry from the reality of its financials and KPI’s that I can’t imagine this is an appropriate price. I use adobe on a daily basis and so i’ll have my eyes peeled for any truly concerning developments in this space. The moat isn’t exactly as powerful as a company like ASML, but i’d argue it is a stronger competitive advantage than the average investor realizes.

NFLX: 4.65%

A few months back, I wrote a piece about the frustrating M&A problems Netflix was encountering when trying to purchase Warner Brothers Discovery. I explored a few different scenarios, but we basically got the best possible outcome. Their “competitor,” paid way over its skiis to acquire a business which I don’t believe will give them that much of an advantage. Netflix walked away with $2 billion in cash, and we didn’t have to take on any debt. Am I a little sad I don’t get to own the Sopranos? Yes. I did appreciate the merits of owning legacy media that holds tremendous cultural weight (Buffett would call this “mind share”), but we were going to pay a hefty price for that stuff.

For a while now, Hollywood has been eating itself. The movie business would be wonderful if it wasn’t so jam-packed with miscreants, egomaniacs, and psychos. The traditional media landscape is falling apart entirely, and if the blind want to lead the blind off a cliff, I’m happy to let them. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a break-up of Paramount/Warner bros sometime in the next decade, and we Netflix shareholders might end up with an even better deal. Paramount will almost certainly seek to squeeze juice out of wonderful legacy brands, and in doing so, tarnish them. Get ready for more sequels and reboots! AI-Tony Soprano is coming to a theatre near you. As a movie/TV lover i’m a bit sad, but as a Netflix shareholder I say let them rot.

OTCM: 3.76%

I wish I had more to say at this moment when it comes to OTCM. I’ll probably do a more comprehensive update here in the coming months, but i’d say this idea is less inspired than some others I currently have. If something is on the chopping block it’ll be OTCM.

BRK.B: 2.04%

There is almost nothing to say here. Berkshire was the first position I ever took and i’ll never sell it. Its also a big business and hard for me to value, so i’ve held off buying more.

QQQM: 10.34% / SPY: 6.00% / Cash: 0.07%

If you’re wondering why I’m still holding ETF’s, its simply because whats left of these positions is in a taxable account and i’m not that bearish on the “market as a whole.” Do I think my other ideas will collectively do better than SPY/QQQ? Of course! But I would rather not pay tax on 5 years of gains, and I don’t hate having a little insurance against my own thinking. I hold effectively no cash as I have plenty of places i’m comfortable deploying cash.

So! There are a few overall themes and choices i’ve made over the last year or so that i’d like to review and check in on:

Selling QQQM (and SPY)

Look, when I first started investing many years ago, I wasn’t exactly what you’d call “confident in my abilities.” I had very little capital, and when life was busy, i’d buy S&P. For a long period I was pretty convinced that “Large Cap U.S tech,” was the superior asset class, and so i’d weight my portfolio in that general direction (buy buying a bunch of QQQ along with SPY). This worked well! But things have changed.

My concerns around big-tech are mainly two-fold.

One: I think AI is a total bubble, and many large-cap firms are deploying shareholder capital into an area where it will be almost impossible for them to truly get a high return on that capital (AI).

Two: I think large scale passive index investing is creating miss-pricing and overconfidence in large-cap names. I may read 10k’s, but all my “civilian friends,” simply have 401k plans that auto-invest in the S&P (which is weighed heavily towards large-cap tech).

There is another element here which is simply that I think we are generally in a period of overconfidence and exuberance, and I don’t love holding an index in a a period like this.

And finally, because all the attention has been on “hype stocks” and “headline plays,” it’s been easier for me to find some pretty great businesses that are simply being ignored or discarded by investors (Copart for example).

I think fewer people than ever are playing “my game,” and so why would I play theirs? If everyone is either investing passively into indexes or chasing momentum, these are PERFECT conditions for a traditional value investor such as myself.

Housing (POOL and EXP)

Looking through my portfolio, you may think, “man, this guy is bullish on housing.” In fact, i’m not actually that bullish on housing. Rather, I know people need and want homes and America doesn’t have enough. And I know housing has been in a tailspin for almost 4 years now. I have a three part housing deep dive by the way, if you want to learn more about this.

Point being, when a whole sector gets thrown in the trash, people like me tend to jump in the dumpster. In the case of housing, i’ve been in this dumpster for a little longer than i’d prefer. But this is usually the case when one buys a counter-narrative. This is precisely the sort of dynamic that makes investing more a psychological challenge than a game of intellect.

Pool Corp and Eagle are both great businesses (Pool more-so than Eagle I think). They both also buy back shares with alacrity when the stock gets cheap. Consequently, i’m comfortable holding them during down periods.

There is tremendous political force behind the need for America to correct it’s housing problem, and so I do believe this industry will eventually normalize. When it does, a business like Pool Corp will click back into gear, and the market will remember why it used to trade at 40x earnings. But until then, its just a matter of sitting in the dumpster.

Coal (AMR and HCC)

My coal positions have been some of my “least conventional” and yet most profitable endeavors in a while. I really don’t buy mining companies, but I made exception for an exceptional case. I do a lot of writing about coal (mainly because i’m so out of my element Donny), so I won’t go into detail here. I’m still happy to hold these companies for at least a few more years.

Copart/Adobe/Pool

These are all relatively new positions for me. Both Pool and Copart have fallen below the price I initially paid, and i’ve continued buying them on the way down. When new cash comes into my account, it flows into one of these three names. All three of these fit into the category of “great business” and if you ask me, they’re trading below a fair price. I see that as a real opportunity, and so i’m comfortable swinging at all three pitches. The important thing here is that they’re all buying back stock (a lot of it). Were that not the case, I wouldn’t feel nearly as relaxed buying them.

Cognitive Dissonance

I’ll end with this….

There is some conflict within my own mind on a few issues. Lets take, for example, the sale of Taiwan Semiconductor.

I sold that beautiful company for two reasons: AI Bubble and China Risk

This was my largest single position, one of my longest held stocks, and one of my favorite companies on Earth.

And yet I still hold Amazon - a company that is 100% exposed to an AI bubble.

Furthermore, i’m of the belief that China is crumbling on the inside, and yet i’m still holding these met-coal stocks which are exposed to China’s underlying economy.

I believe the political system in America is wrought with misguided regulation, and yet i’m betting on housing.

So this is not a “perfect portfolio,” when one considers some of the larger macro themes that are currently on my radar. I’m not really a top down investor - nor do I seek to be. But its something i’m merely pointing out for my future benefit. Sort of an, “if i’m wrong, this is probably how i’m wrong,” type of things.

The thing is no one really knows the future. It is impossible to account for every risk. When investors look only at risk they end up with gold bars and treasury bills. I’m betting that people will still like pools in the future. That humans will still make art/content. That small businesses will need access to capital. That Americans will want to buy homes - that buildings will be built with cement. That Indians will build cars and buildings and weapons with steel. I’m betting that people really like fast delivery, cheap prices, and lots of options., and that less developed countries will find a lot of value in buying the damaged vehicles of more developed nations. That cars will still be totaled. I’m betting that i’ll still have my Visa card in 10 years.

I’m betting that no, its not different this time.

Talk to ya later

MoS

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. This publication is for education and entertainment only. Nothing here is an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may own (or short) securities mentioned and may change positions at any time without notice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed adviser who knows your situation.